AN IMPORTANT REVISION – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   Anyone with common sense knows that crime is increasing in America, and that police reluctance to enter controversial situations (the "Ferguson effect") is part of the problem.   Obama, that great expert on law enforcement, doesn't agree, but now a scholar who originally denied the Ferguson effect is changing sides.  From Hot Air: 

University of Missouri-St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld published a paper last June which argued that the “Ferguson Effect” was not real. Rosenfeld’s take on the matter was picked up by media outlets around the country.

All of these stories from 2015 rely on Rosenfeld’s analysis at least in part. But Rosenfeld has recently announced that he has changed his mind. The Guardian reports:

Looking at data from 56 large cities across the country, Rosenfeld found a 17% increase in homicide in 2015. Much of that increase came from only 10 cities, which saw an average 33% increase in homicide.

“These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,” he said. “It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.”

All 10 cities that saw sudden increases in homicide had large African American populations, he said. While it’s not clear what drove the increases, he said, he believes there is some connection between high-profile protests over police killings of unarmed black men, a further breakdown in black citizens’ trust of the police, and an increase in community violence.

“The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”.

Rosenfeld’s statement is very similar to what FBI Director Comey said last October, “It’s the one explanation that, to my mind, explains the calendar and the map and makes the most sense.” The new analysis has not been made public yet but should be out next month. Will the media be as eager to embrace Rosenfeld’s new hypothesis?

COMMENT:  I doubt if the media will go along with the latest research because it violates the party line of the political left, as parroted by the White House. 

But at least some people are showing some spine, and pointing out the facts – that when you constantly condemn the police, even good officers will pull back, rather than getting involved in a situation that can result in their being charged with some offense.

May 16, 2016